November Returns


by Steven Sarnoff

We welcome the onset of a new month with stocks seeking to extend their record run. Analysts often look to past returns for an idea of what to expect going forward. But the well-known disclaimer, “Past results are not indicative of future returns,” is always applicable. One of my favorite market adages is that, “It’s the little exceptions that get you.” So one is well-served to view historical returns with eyes open to alternative outcomes.

The following chart arrived in my Inbox, depicting monthly trends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 20, 50, and 100 years.

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Is The “Buy the Dip” Crowd Facing A Rough Road Ahead?


by Steven Sarnoff

Those who drive down the gritty paradise that is the Baja may recognize this stretch of road found south of Margaritaville San Felipe.  Drivers are warned as they approach a “zona de vados” to moderate their speed, because hitting a dip with velocity can end up being fatal.   So to, a trader must see the signs to know when conditions are clear and when to proceed with caution.  Blindly taking up positions may wreck your portfolio. Continue reading