Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Federal Reserve

Marriner S. Eccles Building, h/t federalreserve.gov

“The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and in employment, and already the job gains of the past decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.”
— Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, Speech on Current Economic Issues

Jobsmacked

jobless claims

h/t Yahoo Finance

job·smacked
/ˈjäbˌsmakt/
adjectiveinformal•American
adjective: jobsmacked; adjective: job-smacked
 

Economists and markets utterly astonished; astounded by skyrocketing U.S. initial jobless claims data

This morning’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, by the Department of Labor, was double economists’ estimates.

The pre-market no likey.

Jobsmacked

Reaction to seeing the coming jobs data,

“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
Jaws (1975)

jobless claims

Initial jobless claims and recessions

When they look back to add the shading for this widespread economic downturn, they should make it a darker shade of gray.

The other recessions were mere minnows.

But know that the seas will calm and the sun will shine again, at some point.

Be kind, compassionate, patient, and positive.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

oil painting sea of fog

Casper David Friedrich’s 1818 oil painting, Wanderer Above the Sea of Fog

“As a practitioner of uncertainty I have seen more than my share of snake-oil salesmen dressed in the garb of scientists, particularly those operating in economics.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

Trading options is to practice uncertainty.  The painting above represents my view of work each day.

The characteristics of a successful trader are: knowledge, discipline, courage, and hard work.

Then it’s up to luck.

Options Hotline is in its 31st year of publication, helping sensible speculators vie for fun and profit by providing specific, actionable information and recommendations.

Subscribe today to join our readers, navigating uncertain markets and staying a step ahead of the crowd.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

river flow

h/t phys.org

“When it comes to the overall stock market, there are only 2 fundamentals that matter.  Forget book value, div. yield, PEG, etc.  The 2 factors that matter are:

1. How much money is there?

2. How much does that money want to be invested?”

–Tom McClellan, @McClellanOsc

Central banks have been vigorously pumping up their balance sheets, with liquidity flowing into stocks.  We shall see what happens when the flow slows and the river begins to dry.