h/t AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey, File)
“Insane: Hertz is trying to sell $1 billion of soon-to-be-worthless new stock to the idiots who keep pushing up the price of its soon-to-be-worthless old stock to help pay for some of its bankruptcy.”
— Matt O’Brien, @ObsoleteDogma
h/t ESO/Yuri Beletsky, farmersalmanac.com
“Historians of the Great Depression write about the ‘false dawns’ that gripped the public in 1930-1932.
Can’t shake the sense that we are currently in an economic false dawn.”
— Peter Conti-Brown, @PeterContiBrown
“We’ve gone from recession to depression to recovery to euphoria in less than 100 days.”
— Michael Batnick, @michaelbatnick
Marriner S. Eccles Building, h/t federalreserve.gov
“The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and in employment, and already the job gains of the past decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.”
— Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, Speech on Current Economic Issues
h/t Yahoo Finance
adjective: jobsmacked; adjective: job-smacked
Economists and markets utterly astonished; astounded by skyrocketing U.S. initial jobless claims data
This morning’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, by the Department of Labor, was double economists’ estimates.
The pre-market no likey.
Reaction to seeing the coming jobs data,
“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
— Jaws (1975)
Initial jobless claims and recessions
When they look back to add the shading for this widespread economic downturn, they should make it a darker shade of gray.
The other recessions were mere minnows.
But know that the seas will calm and the sun will shine again, at some point.
Be kind, compassionate, patient, and positive.
Casper David Friedrich’s 1818 oil painting, Wanderer Above the Sea of Fog
“As a practitioner of uncertainty I have seen more than my share of snake-oil salesmen dressed in the garb of scientists, particularly those operating in economics.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness
Trading options is to practice uncertainty. The painting above represents my view of work each day.
The characteristics of a successful trader are: knowledge, discipline, courage, and hard work.
Then it’s up to luck.
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“When it comes to the overall stock market, there are only 2 fundamentals that matter. Forget book value, div. yield, PEG, etc. The 2 factors that matter are:
1. How much money is there?
2. How much does that money want to be invested?”
–Tom McClellan, @McClellanOsc
Central banks have been vigorously pumping up their balance sheets, with liquidity flowing into stocks. We shall see what happens when the flow slows and the river begins to dry.
Illustration of the fools of Chelm, by Maurice Sendak, in Isaac Bashevis Singer’s short story, The Snow in Chelm
“The difference between being very smart and very foolish is often very small.”
— Amos Tversky
“Remain calm. All is well.”
— Animal House
Fed Chair Jay Powell, pictured above, discussing the NY Fed’s repo actions and growth of the central bank’s balance sheet, during Wednesday’s press conference.