Jobsmacked

jobless claims

h/t Yahoo Finance

job·smacked
/ˈjäbˌsmakt/
adjectiveinformal•American
adjective: jobsmacked; adjective: job-smacked
 

Economists and markets utterly astonished; astounded by skyrocketing U.S. initial jobless claims data

This morning’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, by the Department of Labor, was double economists’ estimates.

The pre-market no likey.

Jobsmacked

Reaction to seeing the coming jobs data,

“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
Jaws (1975)

jobless claims

Initial jobless claims and recessions

When they look back to add the shading for this widespread economic downturn, they should make it a darker shade of gray.

The other recessions were mere minnows.

But know that the seas will calm and the sun will shine again, at some point.

Be kind, compassionate, patient, and positive.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

oil painting sea of fog

Casper David Friedrich’s 1818 oil painting, Wanderer Above the Sea of Fog

“As a practitioner of uncertainty I have seen more than my share of snake-oil salesmen dressed in the garb of scientists, particularly those operating in economics.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

Trading options is to practice uncertainty.  The painting above represents my view of work each day.

The characteristics of a successful trader are: knowledge, discipline, courage, and hard work.

Then it’s up to luck.

Options Hotline is in its 31st year of publication, helping sensible speculators vie for fun and profit by providing specific, actionable information and recommendations.

Subscribe today to join our readers, navigating uncertain markets and staying a step ahead of the crowd.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

river flow

h/t phys.org

“When it comes to the overall stock market, there are only 2 fundamentals that matter.  Forget book value, div. yield, PEG, etc.  The 2 factors that matter are:

1. How much money is there?

2. How much does that money want to be invested?”

–Tom McClellan, @McClellanOsc

Central banks have been vigorously pumping up their balance sheets, with liquidity flowing into stocks.  We shall see what happens when the flow slows and the river begins to dry.

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“I’ve always felt ideas were a dime a dozen.  If you had one that didn’t work out, you should not fight too hard to save it, just go find another.”
— Daniel Kahneman

That can be applied to trading.  Examine your decision-making process.

As a general rule, never add to a losing position.  Hone your money management survival skills, so that inevitable losing trades don’t knock you out.  You want to be there to reap the benefits of your big winners.

After all, there’s always opportunity in options.

Best regards,

Steve

PS Check out Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project, about groundbreaking psychologists Kahneman and Tversky.

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

operation repo

Operation Repo h/t IMDB, EGA Productions

“All the oil experts from the weekend are now repo rate experts.”
— Hipster, @Hipster_Trader

The repo news isn’t about automobiles. It’s about the beleaguered US Federal Reserve and their large overnight liquidity injections into the financial system.

We wish them Godspeed and good luck, as they try to thread the needle while pushing on a string.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

h/t Shutterstock

“This is hard to accept in the Age of the Internet.  It has been very hard for me to explain that the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on, and the more iatrogenics you will cause.  People are still under the illusion that science means more data.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Understanding this concept may benefit you in regards to your trading, as well as your health.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“In maths, 10 x 1 is always the same as 1 x 10, but in real life, it rarely is.  You can trick ten people once, but it’s much harder to trick one person ten times.”
— Rory Sutherland

h/t Jim O’Shaughnessy, @jposhaughnessy

It’s good to be back from a wonderful family celebration in New York.  After all these years in California, there’s still just a little New Yorker left in me.

Best regards,

Steve