Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Gold chart

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

“Folks using intraday charts to call the top of a gold move that is unfolding on monthly charts is hilarious.  Y’all are doing it backwards!”
— Chris Carolan, @spiralcal

Options Hotline Update, FYI: Our recommended Father’s Day call on Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), emailed Sunday evening to our subscribers, triggered 06-17-19 at $85 with GOLD at $13.86, traded 06-21-19 at $206 with GOLD at $15.68, +142% in 4 days on a 13% move in the underlying shares, with an always known and strictly limited risk!

That’s the Superleverage power of my method on display.  If this is the type of options action you’re looking for, subscribe to Options Hotline today to see how we stay a step ahead of the crowd.

The character of the behavior of price movement in gold is telling us a big longer-term breakout is in play.  Former resistance (supply) now represents underlying support (demand).  The strong red candles on my weekly chart above depict this vividly.

It’s important to view price movement from different time perspectives: monthly, weekly, and daily.  Consider the lines of average price movement, along with price movement irrespective of time and you begin to approach a complete picture.

Best regards,

Steve

GOLD Gets Going

Options Hotline Update, FYI: Our recommended call on Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) trades +131% in 3 days, on a 12% move in the underlying shares, with an always known and strictly limited risk.

Market moves accelerated following a friendly Fed statement.  Falling Treasury bond yields are weighing on the US dollar.  This is helping boost stock prices and it benefits gold, as well.

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Let the Chips Fall

Micron stock chart

h/t stockcharts.com

Options Hotline Update, FYI: +140% in 2 months on Micron puts

This morning, financial news was blaring about continued US/China trade tensions pressing Tech stocks to the downside. The move lower in Micron reached our $33 price target (see 03-24-19 Options Hotline) and our readers received an email Profit Alert that we would consider the position closed.

The Micron July $40 put, triggered 03-25-19 at $3.00, traded 05-23-19 at $7.20, +140% in just under 2 months, with an always known and strictly limited risk!

That’s the Superleverage power of our method on display.

You can see on my daily candlestick chart of Micron (MU) above, subsequent to our recommendation MU had a quick decline and rebound.  Shares then settled into a consolidation, before breaking down, over the past few weeks, to our objective.

Over the years I’ve found that patience tends to pay.  If this type of options action is for you, subscribe to Options Hotline today.

Let me know if you have any questions. My email never sleeps.

Best regards,

Steve

The Superleverage Power of Call Options

Avengers Endgame poster

Avengers Endgame Chinese Poster h/t Disney/Marvel

Disney June $115 call

Options Hotline, March – April, 2019

The Superleverage Power of my method was on display this week, as Options Hotline subscribers multiplied their money with our call recommendation on shares of Walt Disney Co.

On Friday, DIS soared like Captain Marvel going full binary.  Following the unveiling of its streaming service, DIS rose 11% from the previous day.  This action helped shares reach our $130 per share price objective (see 03-10-19 Options Hotline and 04-12-19 Options Hotline Alert).

Our recommended DIS June $115 call, triggered 03-11-19 at $4.50, with DIS at $114, traded 04-12-19 at $17.00, with DIS at $130.  That’s +278% in a month, on a 14% move in the underlying shares, with an always known and strictly limited risk!

We’re always seeking to stay a step ahead of the crowd.  Here’s what it looks like on my daily candlestick chart for Disney:

Disney price chart

My daily candlestick chart for Disney, h/t stockcharts.com

So Sarnoff, what is Superleverage?

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Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

coffee cup

My coffee cup at our spot by the Sea of Cortez.

“Way down here, you need a reason to move.”
— James Taylor, Mexico

NOTE: I’ll be driving down the gritty paradise of Baja, unplugged for a week.  Hopefully, they’ll let us back in. Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom will return on Monday, April 8th.

Market price also needs a reason to move.  That reason is the human behavior of buying and selling.  I’m not smart enough to know all the factors which influence why people act the way they do.  That is why I use Japanese Candlestick charts to study the character of the behavior of market price movement.  Candlesticks account for the actions of the Algos (algorithmic trading by computer), as well.

Japanese charting techniques vividly depict who has the advantage, buyers or sellers, and are a great tool to determine when and where the balance of power is likely to shift.

Have a great week ahead!

Best regards,

Steve

 

Is The Market Rally Ready To Shift Into Reverse?

Shift to reverse

Shift to Reverse

Are stocks off to the races or set to reverse course?

Analysis and Outlook for the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF):

The Qs are rebounding sharply from their Christmastime low to today’s high. We see shorts getting squeezed and the weaker hands being weeded out.  Tech stocks have steadily moved through resistance to reach higher levels of supply. In the aftermath of December’s waterfall decline, they’ve driven a good distance up in a short amount of time.

A big boost in central bank balance sheets, in large part courtesy of stimulus by the People’s Bank of China, has pumped in the liquidity needed to stave off impending disaster for investors.  The key question now is, “How high are we going to go?”

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Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Mandelbrot set fractal

Mandelbrot set, fractal photo by Matthias Hauser

“The market is a fractal of human nature.”
— Basil Chapman

The term ‘fractal” was coined by mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot in 1975.  Fractals are simply defined as never-ending patterns that repeat at different scales.  Their property is known as “self-similarity.”  Although fractals are very complex, they are made by repeating a simple process.

Fractals are found and applied in: math, science, nature, art, architecture, music, the stock market, and more.  Arguably, fractals appear in all human pursuits, throughout the natural world, and the universe.

Mandelbrot studied financial markets and used a computer to analyze cotton price movement.  This led him to develop “fractal geometry” and the “Mandelbrot set.”

As Mandelbrot wrote, in his introduction to The Fractal Geometry of Nature (1982), “Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line.”

Markets may appear chaotic and rough.  I like to say market prices don’t travel along a one-way street.  Often, a familiar road map to price movement can be found.  Sometimes the market’s moves are natural and sometimes they are not.  I view it as an exciting and never-ceasing endeavor to catch the market’s twists and turns.

Technical analysis is a combination of art and science.

Human behavior (buying and selling) drives market price movement.  That is why Options Hotline uses Japanese charting techniques.  We use our charts to vividly reveal the human behavior behind headline numbers and help you stay a step ahead of the crowd.

We combine Japanese charting techniques with the best of western technical analysis. The addition of pattern recognition and the Superleverage power of options, to play the probabilities, and now we’re talkin’ sensible speculation.

Good luck in your trading!

Best regards,

Steve

 

Goodyear Deflated

Goodyear Blimp Deflated

Goodyear Blimp Deflated

Goodyear Tire issued an earnings warning and shares drove south.  Today the overall market extended its rally, albeit on light volume.  As I recently wrote, we may be approaching a turn.

When the market is up and the shares you’re watching are not, that is a sign of weakness.  The opposite is true, as well.  When individual shares are up in a down market, it’s a sign of their strength.

As you can see below, Goodyear literally left a skid mark on my daily candlestick chart.

Chart by Steven Sarnoff

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

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Anticipating a Turning Sign

U-Turn sign

U-Turn sign

A week ago, I posted my Analysis and Outlook for the S&P 500 (SPY).  The venerable index was rallying off its Christmastime low and I was anticipating where and when the balance of power was likely to shift.  At the time, I was on lookout for a turn.  That watch is now heightened.  Here’s my update.

As you can see on my daily candlestick chart below, SPY is reaching technical resistance.  Bulls could be slowing their roll.

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Your Weekend Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.”
— William Feather

Differing opinions make markets. The battle between bulls and bears is a daily struggle for control of price direction.  Our method focuses on the human behavior (including computer-driven algorithmic trading) of buying and selling.  That is what ultimately drives price action.

Combining the best of western technical analysis with our expertise in interpretation of Japanese charting techniques, we study the character of the behavior of of market price movement (positive, negative, or indecisive).   We strive to identify which side has the advantage, along with when and where the balance of power is likely to shift, to help us stay a step ahead of the crowd.

Subscribe to Options Hotline today to see how our readers are positioning for fun and profit.

Enjoy your weekend!

Best regards,

Steve