Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Overanalysis chart

Overanalysis, h/t Larry Pesavento, tfnn.com

“Visible mess helps distract us from the true source of the disorder.”
— Marie Kondo, The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing

Tidy up your charts.

It will help you see the market’s movement clearly and help prevent paralysis from overanalysis.

The Marie Kondo organizing phenomenon is sweeping the globe.  Cleaning up your living space is clearly beneficial.

Cleaning up your charts can spark joy in your trading.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Windsock

Windsock, h/t iStock by Getty Images

“Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.”
— Carl Swenlin

A windsock is a device used to determine the current wind direction and relative intensity.  A crystal ball is a mere prop used to predict the future.

A windsock’s general purpose is to give the pilot a quick reference as to where the wind is coming from and the approximate wind speed.  Before accelerating for takeoff, you glance at the windsock for information so you can give the necessary rudder inputs while the plane is rolling down the runway.

That’s how we apply technical analysis to trading.

Best regards,

Steve

 

 

Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

new moon

New Moon, h/t space.com

“The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the skies is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint.”
— Mark Twain

Stocks and commodities have long-term and short-term price cycles.  There are solar and lunar cycles. Awareness of these can provide important information for traders in timing potential trend changes.

The key is to understand that price cycles are approximate.  Watching how prices behave around key cycle dates can be a valuable tool for sensible speculators.  Used in combination with technical indicators, cycles add weight to the evidence.

We’ll see if yesterday’s new moon has an impact today.

Best regards,

Steve

Is The Market Rally Ready To Shift Into Reverse?

Shift to reverse

Shift to Reverse

Are stocks off to the races or set to reverse course?

Analysis and Outlook for the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF):

The Qs are rebounding sharply from their Christmastime low to today’s high. We see shorts getting squeezed and the weaker hands being weeded out.  Tech stocks have steadily moved through resistance to reach higher levels of supply. In the aftermath of December’s waterfall decline, they’ve driven a good distance up in a short amount of time.

A big boost in central bank balance sheets, in large part courtesy of stimulus by the People’s Bank of China, has pumped in the liquidity needed to stave off impending disaster for investors.  The key question now is, “How high are we going to go?”

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Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Mandelbrot set fractal

Mandelbrot set, fractal photo by Matthias Hauser

“The market is a fractal of human nature.”
— Basil Chapman

The term ‘fractal” was coined by mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot in 1975.  Fractals are simply defined as never-ending patterns that repeat at different scales.  Their property is known as “self-similarity.”  Although fractals are very complex, they are made by repeating a simple process.

Fractals are found and applied in: math, science, nature, art, architecture, music, the stock market, and more.  Arguably, fractals appear in all human pursuits, throughout the natural world, and the universe.

Mandelbrot studied financial markets and used a computer to analyze cotton price movement.  This led him to develop “fractal geometry” and the “Mandelbrot set.”

As Mandelbrot wrote, in his introduction to The Fractal Geometry of Nature (1982), “Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line.”

Markets may appear chaotic and rough.  I like to say market prices don’t travel along a one-way street.  Often, a familiar road map to price movement can be found.  Sometimes the market’s moves are natural and sometimes they are not.  I view it as an exciting and never-ceasing endeavor to catch the market’s twists and turns.

Technical analysis is a combination of art and science.

Human behavior (buying and selling) drives market price movement.  That is why Options Hotline uses Japanese charting techniques.  We use our charts to vividly reveal the human behavior behind headline numbers and help you stay a step ahead of the crowd.

We combine Japanese charting techniques with the best of western technical analysis. The addition of pattern recognition and the Superleverage power of options, to play the probabilities, and now we’re talkin’ sensible speculation.

Good luck in your trading!

Best regards,

Steve

 

Goodyear Deflated

Goodyear Blimp Deflated

Goodyear Blimp Deflated

Goodyear Tire issued an earnings warning and shares drove south.  Today the overall market extended its rally, albeit on light volume.  As I recently wrote, we may be approaching a turn.

When the market is up and the shares you’re watching are not, that is a sign of weakness.  The opposite is true, as well.  When individual shares are up in a down market, it’s a sign of their strength.

As you can see below, Goodyear literally left a skid mark on my daily candlestick chart.

Chart by Steven Sarnoff

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

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Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

Irrational mind

Irrational mind

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
— John Maynard Keynes

This phenomenon is seen quite often in markets.   Oversold or overbought conditions can continue beyond your level of comfort.

That is why, as Larry Pesavento says, “Trade what you see, not what you hear or think.”

Best regards,

Steve

Anticipating a Turning Sign

U-Turn sign

U-Turn sign

A week ago, I posted my Analysis and Outlook for the S&P 500 (SPY).  The venerable index was rallying off its Christmastime low and I was anticipating where and when the balance of power was likely to shift.  At the time, I was on lookout for a turn.  That watch is now heightened.  Here’s my update.

As you can see on my daily candlestick chart below, SPY is reaching technical resistance.  Bulls could be slowing their roll.

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Your Weekend Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.”
— William Feather

Differing opinions make markets. The battle between bulls and bears is a daily struggle for control of price direction.  Our method focuses on the human behavior (including computer-driven algorithmic trading) of buying and selling.  That is what ultimately drives price action.

Combining the best of western technical analysis with our expertise in interpretation of Japanese charting techniques, we study the character of the behavior of of market price movement (positive, negative, or indecisive).   We strive to identify which side has the advantage, along with when and where the balance of power is likely to shift, to help us stay a step ahead of the crowd.

Subscribe to Options Hotline today to see how our readers are positioning for fun and profit.

Enjoy your weekend!

Best regards,

Steve

Your Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
— Albert Einstein*

Nowadays, market participants have a plethora of technical tools and studies at their fingertips.  A common malady afflicting traders is paralysis from over-analysis.  To break that stupor, we apply the Navy’s KISS principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid).

Find a handful of indicators you like best and use them.

Good luck in your trading!

Best regards,

Steve

* This quote may be misattributed to the great theoretical physicist and philosopher.  I don’t want to exacerbate that, but it is quite widespread and suits him so well.  We won’t quibble.  The horse has left the barn, the train has left the station, the cat’s out of the bag (oh, I don’t like that one:-), etc.  Take your pick.  It could always be worse.