November Returns

november

by Steven Sarnoff

November Returns

We welcome the onset of a new month with stocks seeking to extend their record run.

Analysts often look to past returns for an idea of what to expect going forward. But the well-known disclaimer, “Past results are not indicative of future returns,” is always applicable.

One of my favorite market adages is that “It’s the little exceptions that get you.” So one is well-served to view historical returns with eyes open to alternative outcomes.

The following chart arrived in my Inbox, depicting monthly trends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 20, 50, and 100 years.

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I $SPY Key Resistance, FYI:

ispy

by Steven Sarnoff

Corporate earnings beats, particularly in the Dow industrials, are propelling panic buying. Central bank monetary largesse and money moving out of bonds (pushing 10-year yields up), along with investor hopes for tax cut legislation is also juicing the market.

I try to tune out the noise and focus on what the character of the behavior of market price movement is saying. Note, in my daily candlestick chart below, the appearance of a “hanging man” followed by a strong negative black candle just as the venerable index is nearing the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. This is telling us that buyers are approaching exhaustion and sellers are poised to strike back.

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Value, What A Concept!

value

by Steven Sarnoff

Just a week after running over Ford, Tesla today overtook General Motors for the number one spot among US automakers for market value based on stock market capitalization.  Tesla’s drive higher has sparked renewed debate about the concept of value.

Differing opinions make markets. The financial media features many Wall Street analysts flouting Tesla’s share price rise, calling the stock clearly overvalued. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, couldn’t resist schadenfreude by trolling and throwing shade at short sellers with his, “Stormy weather in Shortville…” tweet.

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Flash Sale: 16% Off Options Hotline Through This Sunday Promo Code SWEET16

OHLweb

by Steven Sarnoff

I’m not big on promotions, but thought of this one as a salute to Chuck Berry, the progenitor of Rock ‘n’ Roll and to basketball, the sport I love, down to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.

If anyone you know is interested in subscribing to our service, feel free to pass along this promo.

Attention Traders, Sweet 16 FLASH SALE: 16% Off OPTIONS HOTLINE, Through This Sunday. Enter code SWEET16 to subscribe and receive Steve’s next Option Trading recommendation.

During March Madness, our readers have already seen:

+118% in 1 month on ConocoPhillips
+82% in 9 days on the Russell 2000 index
+98% in 2 days on Citigroup

#OptionTrading #OptionsHotline

Crazy Like A Fox

crazyfox

Crazy Like A Fox, art by Terry Fan

by Steven Sarnoff

Today was the worst day of the year for stocks, but not too shabby for OPTIONS HOTLINE subscribers. The Superleverage power of my method was on display, as our recommended Citigroup May $60 put, triggered 03-20-17 at $2.00, traded 03-21-17 at $3.30, +65% in 1 day, on a 3% move in the underlying shares, with an always known and strictly limited risk!

On Sunday, 03-19-17, I emailed my readers, “Professionals have seen the recent sector underperformance and are fading the financials. Some may call that crazy, but it may just end up being crazy like a fox.”

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Fibonacci For Traders, Truth Or Fib?

nautilus

by Steven Sarnoff

Since today is Pi Day, and we were honored by our math major nephew dropping by the office during his break from university, I decided this was as good a day as any to get back to blogging with a post about how a trader should regard the influence of a famous Italian mathematician from the Middle Ages on today’s markets. Continue reading

Don’t Suffer Paralysis From Over-Analysis In Your Trading

paralysis

by Steven Sarnoff

                    “If you spend too much time thinking about a thing, you’ll never get it done.” — Bruce Lee

This week, with more earnings and big mergers on parade, there is plenty for traders to digest.  Add to that, the myriad of technical tools available at your mouse-clicking fingertips and you can see how traders can easily be bogged down and confused by conflicting indicators and information overload.

As a technical analyst, aka a “chartist,” you have the ability to overlay a veritable smorgasbord of studies on your chart.  That can quickly clutter the picture and cause indecision.

So Sarnoff, what is your solution?

The answer is to study the technical indicators, pick a handful you like best, and use them.

I want my chart to paint a vivid picture, depicting  the human behavior (buying and selling) that drives the direction of market price movement.  I prefer to look at a clean and clear chart, one that readily reveals which side (buyers or sellers) has the advantage.  I can then go about determining when and where the balance of power is likely to shift. Continue reading

Are Bears Ready To Get Fat Quick?

getfatbear

Bear getting into “get fat quick” phase, h/t natgeotravel

by Steven Sarnoff

When temperatures start to fall, bears are known to move into a “get fat quick” phase.  They gorge on anything edible to fatten up and survive their lengthy winter slumber.

When asked why the market was up or down on a particular day, my dad would reply in his Brooklynese, “Sometimes the bulls gotta get fed and sometimes the bears gotta get fed.” One of the lengthiest bull markets on record has left beleaguered bears hungry for a turn.

Are they ready to feast? Continue reading

Surfing Silver With The Superleverage Power Of Options Hotline

silversurfer

by Steven Sarnoff

My Options Hotline subscribers doubled their money in just one day, today!  Here’s how they did it.

Option buyers are the only ones who have the Superleverage power to use OPM (other people’s money) to profit from changing prices, with an always known and strictly limited risk at all times.  Options also allow sensible speculators the opportunity to profit from stock moves both up and down.

Such has been our experience this year, using shares of silver streaming company Silver Wheaton (SLW) as our proxy for the precious metal. Continue reading