Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

mack truck

h/t macktrucks.com

“More data — such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street — can make you miss the big truck.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Successful speculation is as much about honing your survival skills as it is finding winning trades.

Don’t suffer paralysis from over-analysis.

Pick the indicators you like best and use them.

That can can help you stay a step ahead of the crowd.

Subscribe to Options Hotline today, to see how we use puts for protection.

Best regards,

Steve

Law of Gravity

spce chart

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

Early today, shares of Virgin Galactic (SPCE) continued their rocket rise.

The SPCE April $20 call option I recommended to subscribers (see yesterday’s blog post and the 02-09-20 Options Hotline) for $2.50 reached a value of $18.72 today, +649% in a little over a week.

But markets don’t move in one direction.  Even though shares were up from Friday, the character of today’s price movement is actually negative.  See my chart above for today’s black candle line with an upper shadow.  That shows price falling from the high of the day and implies the likelihood of a coming move lower to levels of underlying support (demand).

It’s important to remember the law of gravity applies to markets.

If buyers are exhausted from a hyperbolic rise, SPCE will get burned on re-entry.

A wild ride, indeed.

Best regards,

Steve

 

 

Outta Space

spce chart

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

I hope you’re all enjoying the Presidents’ Day holiday.

FYI: This past week, call options on Virgin Galactic quadrupled.

The header for my most-recent recommendation to our subscribers (see 02-09-20 Options Hotline) was, “Outta Space.”  It was a subtle tribute to Billy Preston’s funky 1971 instrumental track, which your then 13-year old editor saw him perform with the Rolling Stones during one of their 1975 shows at Madison Square Garden.

billy preston

Billy Preston, circa 1975

My idea was that shares of Virgin Galactic (SPCE) were set to launch another leg higher.  Here was my chart from that bulletin.

spce chart

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

With SPCE at $18.93, the option I was eyeing closed $2.45 bid at $2.55. I recommended the SPCE April $20 call for $2.50 or less.  The option expiration date was April 17th.

As you can see on the chart at the top of this post, shares rocketed higher from my reco point A.  SPCE closed Friday at $28.68.

The low trade for my recommended option was $2.56, on Monday the 10th, so my recommended trade was not officially triggered.

I prefer using limit orders for entry, because you always know your risk.

The option closed Friday the 14th at $10.00, quite a Valentine’s gift for those who bought anyway.

By week’s end the Superleverage power, available only to option buyers, was on display.

Congrats to those who profited.  If you didn’t get it, don’t worry.

There’s always opportunity in options.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

oil painting sea of fog

Casper David Friedrich’s 1818 oil painting, Wanderer Above the Sea of Fog

“As a practitioner of uncertainty I have seen more than my share of snake-oil salesmen dressed in the garb of scientists, particularly those operating in economics.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

Trading options is to practice uncertainty.  The painting above represents my view of work each day.

The characteristics of a successful trader are: knowledge, discipline, courage, and hard work.

Then it’s up to luck.

Options Hotline is in its 31st year of publication, helping sensible speculators vie for fun and profit by providing specific, actionable information and recommendations.

Subscribe today to join our readers, navigating uncertain markets and staying a step ahead of the crowd.

Best regards,

Steve