10-year US T-bond yields, weekly chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com
“You’ve got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”
— Music by Harold Arlen, Lyrics by Johnny Mercer (1944)
Throughout the summer and now into fall, the spread of very low and, in several nations, negative yields is a glaring warning sign of danger during these uncertain economic times.
As of 10-04-19, here are select 10-year government bond yields:
United States 1.52
Hong Kong 1.04
South Korea 1.36
Buying a negative yielding sovereign bond is akin to paying a government to hold your money. You are buying a loss. Why on earth would anyone do that? One reason is the Greater Fool Theory on display.
From the archives: First edition of The Stock Trader’s Almanac, with a note from my dad.
“Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times.”
— Jeff Hirsch, The Stock Trader’s Almanac
We shall see if last week’s sharp decline is completely retraced, or if Thursday-Friday’s strong rebound is rebuffed, heading into Yom Kippur.
The important thing to remember with such indicators is, as Richard Russell would say, “It’s the little exceptions that get you.”
Delicious artichoke oysters (all vegan) at Crossroads, in Los Angeles h/t crossroadskitchen.com
“The first man gets the oyster, the second gets the shell.”
— Andrew Carnegie
Don’t look to go where the crowd is, seek to stay a step ahead by positioning where they are going.
Have a wonderful weekend!
“Most people don’t want the truth. They want a secret. So if that’s what you want, I’ll give you the only secret you will ever need—there are no secrets.”
— Nick Maggiulli, @dollarsanddata
There is no holy grail for traders, but there are great tools to help you. With knowledge, courage, discipline, and hard work you can put probability on your side.
Illustration of the fools of Chelm, by Maurice Sendak, in Isaac Bashevis Singer’s short story, The Snow in Chelm
“The difference between being very smart and very foolish is often very small.”
— Amos Tversky
Bell Rock, Sedona, AZ
“They don’t ring a bell at the top.”
— Stock market adage
They don’t blow a whistle there, either.
PS We’re back from a great trip to Sedona, celebrating my newly septuagenarian brother’s birthday especial. Pictures don’t do that place justice. If you’ve never been to Sedona, put it on your list.
“Speculate based on what you can lose, not what you can gain.”
— Mitchell Sarnoff
SUBSCRIBER NOTE: No broadcast this weekend, as I’m on the road to Sedona to celebrate my wise and wonderful brother Mitch’s 70th birthday. Back to the office in the middle of next week.
Enjoy your weekend!
“I’ve always felt ideas were a dime a dozen. If you had one that didn’t work out, you should not fight too hard to save it, just go find another.”
— Daniel Kahneman
That can be applied to trading. Examine your decision-making process.
As a general rule, never add to a losing position. Hone your money management survival skills, so that inevitable losing trades don’t knock you out. You want to be there to reap the benefits of your big winners.
After all, there’s always opportunity in options.
PS Check out Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project, about groundbreaking psychologists Kahneman and Tversky.
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainly is an absurd one.”
Pre-strike overview of Saudi oil field h/t US government/Digital Globe via AP
“Although drone attacks damage refineries they strengthen walls of worry.”
— Walter Deemer, @WalterDeemer