Jobsmacked

jobless claims

h/t Yahoo Finance

job·smacked
/ˈjäbˌsmakt/
adjectiveinformal•American
adjective: jobsmacked; adjective: job-smacked
 

Economists and markets utterly astonished; astounded by skyrocketing U.S. initial jobless claims data

This morning’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, by the Department of Labor, was double economists’ estimates.

The pre-market no likey.

Jobsmacked

Reaction to seeing the coming jobs data,

“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”
Jaws (1975)

jobless claims

Initial jobless claims and recessions

When they look back to add the shading for this widespread economic downturn, they should make it a darker shade of gray.

The other recessions were mere minnows.

But know that the seas will calm and the sun will shine again, at some point.

Be kind, compassionate, patient, and positive.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

mack truck

h/t macktrucks.com

“More data — such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street — can make you miss the big truck.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Successful speculation is as much about honing your survival skills as it is finding winning trades.

Don’t suffer paralysis from over-analysis.

Pick the indicators you like best and use them.

That can can help you stay a step ahead of the crowd.

Subscribe to Options Hotline today, to see how we use puts for protection.

Best regards,

Steve

Elevator, Going Down

qqq chart

Chart by Steven Sarnoff, h/t stockcharts.com

In today’s session, an early rebound was swamped by selling.  As you can see on my daily chart above, the Qs settled sharply lower.  Today’s strongly negative candle shows the elevator (see our previous post) is going down.

Our recommended protective puts were far “out-of-the-money,” trading just a week ago at a scant $.61.  Today, not so much, they traded at $6.70.

Patience tends to pay.

Subscribe to Options Hotline today to stay a step ahead of the crowd as you vie for fun and profit.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“Embrace selloffs because that’s when the market gives you its best clues.”
— Joseph Fahmy, @jfahmy

Keeping your eyes open to developing divergence between the action of individual stocks and the market can provide powerful information.

If a stock is holding up well while all around are down sharply, that tells you something good.

Best regards,

Steve

Your Almost Daily Bit of Wall Street Wit & Wisdom

“We have nothing to fear but the lack of fear itself.”
— Walter Deemer, @WalterDeemer

Currently, there is no fear in the market.  When complacency moves to extremes, it’s a warning signal for traders.

Smart traders know that when volatility (fear) departs, prepare for its return.

Be ready for volatility to return.

Our next bulletin goes out on Sunday.  Subscribe to Options Hotline today to vie for fun and profit.

Best regards,

Steve

Is The Market Rally Ready To Shift Into Reverse?

Shift to reverse

Shift to Reverse

Are stocks off to the races or set to reverse course?

Analysis and Outlook for the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF):

The Qs are rebounding sharply from their Christmastime low to today’s high. We see shorts getting squeezed and the weaker hands being weeded out.  Tech stocks have steadily moved through resistance to reach higher levels of supply. In the aftermath of December’s waterfall decline, they’ve driven a good distance up in a short amount of time.

A big boost in central bank balance sheets, in large part courtesy of stimulus by the People’s Bank of China, has pumped in the liquidity needed to stave off impending disaster for investors.  The key question now is, “How high are we going to go?”

Continue reading

What’s Going On (In The Market Now)?

whatsgoingon

by Steven Sarnoff

The extended record-setting move up in the venerable S&P 500 is making any self-respecting seller “wanna holler and throw up both my hands,” and many of the weaker shorts are capitulating.  This has my contrarian senses tingling.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on in three important markets, stocks, interest rates, and the US dollar.

Continue reading

I $SPY Key Resistance, FYI:

ispy

by Steven Sarnoff

Corporate earnings beats, particularly in the Dow industrials, are propelling panic buying. Central bank monetary largesse and money moving out of bonds (pushing 10-year yields up), along with investor hopes for tax cut legislation is also juicing the market.

I try to tune out the noise and focus on what the character of the behavior of market price movement is saying. Note, in my daily candlestick chart below, the appearance of a “hanging man” followed by a strong negative black candle just as the venerable index is nearing the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. This is telling us that buyers are approaching exhaustion and sellers are poised to strike back.

Continue reading