We welcome the onset of a new month with stocks seeking to extend their record run. Analysts often look to past returns for an idea of what to expect going forward. But the well-known disclaimer, “Past results are not indicative of future returns,” is always applicable. One of my favorite market adages is that, “It’s the little exceptions that get you.” So one is well-served to view historical returns with eyes open to alternative outcomes.
The following chart arrived in my Inbox, depicting monthly trends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 20, 50, and 100 years.